当前，全球经济正在艰难复苏。IMF预计2023年世界经济增长3.0%，2024年下降至2.9%，其中一个重要理由是中国经济增速将从今年的5.2%降至明年的4.2%。中国经济1个百分点的下降通常会压低世界经济增速0.3个百分点，而IMF预测明年世界经济增速仅降低0.1个百分点，说明排除中国影响的世界经济增长动力是增强的。

近期IMF和WTO都预测明年世界贸易增速将恢复至3%以上，也佐证了这一点。这意味着，如果明年中国经济增速不是急剧下降，而是缓慢降至4.8%左右，那么，明年世界经济增速将高于今年，达到3.1%，但相对于疫情前20年世界经济平均3.8%的增速，这依然是一个较低水平。

动荡岁月，人心思稳。短期看，世界经济低迷将持续。但是，全球供应链修复、通胀压力减缓已现端倪，新一轮科技革命和产业革命正在孕育。和平、发展、合作是大家的共同利益，因此，大国博弈将趋于理性，中美战略竞争可能会进入稳定有序的轨道。政治正确让位于务实合作，经贸合作在国际关系中的压舱石地位也将逐渐恢复。

需要指出的是，IMF对中国经济的预测与实际情况不符。从今年前三季度数据来看，中国经济总体呈现恢复向好，尤其是三季度回升态势更趋明显，虽然经济恢复基础仍然较弱。

前三季度，中国GDP按不变价格计算同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长4.5%，二季度增长6.3%，三季度增长4.9%。之所以波动性较大，是因为去年基数波动较大。从环比看，中国经济正逐季平稳恢复，三季度GDP环比增长1.3%，折算年增长率就是5.2%。总体看，促进中国经济走稳走好的积极因素正在增多。

首先，总需求正在恢复，但也存在结构性问题。消费需求在中国经济增长中发挥了基础性作用，今年1-9月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.8%，全国网上零售额同比增长11.6%，其中实物商品网上零售额90435亿元，增长8.9%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为26.4%。在实物商品网上零售额中，吃、穿、用类商品分别增长10.4%、9.6%、8.5%。1-9月份，中国国内商品房销售面积下降7.5%，商品房销售额下降4.6%。

另一方面，投资需求还比较弱。1-9月全国固定资产投资同比增长3.1%，其中制造业投资增长6.2%，比1-8月增加0.3个百分点。但1-9月民间投资下降0.6%，比1-8月收窄0.1个百分点。房地产市场调整仍未结束，1-9月全国房地产开发投资同比下降9.1%，仍是拖累经济增长的负面因素。

外贸出现结构性变化。按美元计，1-9月全国进出口总额同比下降7.2%，出口下降5.7%，贸易顺差6304亿美元。9月份，按美元计，全国进出口总额同比下降6.2%，降幅收窄，环比则增长4.9%。今年以来，中国来自美国、欧洲和日本的订单有所下降，但与“一带一路”和发展中国家的贸易上升。

其次，供给能力恢复加快。服务业率先复苏，今年前三季度服务业增加值同比增长6.0%。其中，住宿和餐饮业、信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、金融业增加值分别增长14.4%、12.1%、9.5%、7.5%、7.0%。9月份，服务业生产指数同比增长6.9%，比上月加快0.1个百分点，增速连续2个月回升。

工业生产情况也不错。9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.5%。从环比看，9月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.36%。1-9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.0%。9月份制造业PMI为50.2%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，重返扩张区间。

经济恢复还体现在物价止跌企稳、退缩隐忧减少上。9月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比持平，环比上涨0.2%，已连续3个月保持正增长。9月份，生产者价格指数（PPI）同比下降2.5%，比6月份低点-5.4%收窄2.9个百分点，PPI环比则上涨0.4%，连续2个月保持正增长。

总体来看，今年前三季度中国主要经济指标出现止跌回升态势。下一步，宏观经济政策仍要坚持“稳中求进”的总基调，积极的财政政策要“加力提效”；要继续完善减税降费措施，突出对中小微企业、个体工商户以及特困行业的支持；要加大财政资金统筹力度，优化政策组合工具，集中财力办大事，在打基础、利长远、补短板、调结构上加大投资，保障重点投资项目资金到位。

稳健的货币政策要“精准发力”。在总量上，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保证货币供应量和社会融资规模的增速与名义经济增速基本匹配。要疏通传导机制，加强支持实体经济力度。在价格上，引导融资成本不断下降。

在结构上，加大对普惠小微、制造业、绿色发展、科技创新、基础设施建设等重点领域、薄弱环节的政策支持，同时用足对普惠小微贷款支持工具、保交楼贷款支持计划和租赁住房贷款支持计划等。

最后，关于房地产问题。疫情前，房地产曾在中国经济中发挥重大作用，体现在房地产投资在全国固定资产投资中占比约1/3，居民购房支出在居民消费支出中占比约1/3，房地产相关产业对GDP增长贡献约占1/3，房地产业创造了全国约1/3的就业机会。

但现在房地产整体下了一个台阶，相比3年前房地产投资每年减少几万亿元，房地产企业营业收入少了几万亿元，地方政府卖地收入少了几万亿元，居民购房支出少了几万亿元。

以上“缺口”仅靠房地产自身是难以弥补的，必须另辟蹊径。笔者建议中国每年在数字经济领域增加几万亿元投资，在健康养老产业增加几万亿元投资，在低碳绿色领域增加几万亿元投资，多管齐下弥补房地产结构调整造成的巨大缺口。若如此，未来中国经济平稳发展大有希望。

The world economy is in the midst of a tenuous recovery. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the world economy would grow by 3 percent in 2023, before falling to 2.9 percent in 2024. One of the key drivers is that China's growth is expected to decline from 5.2 percent this year to 4.2 percent next year. Notably, every 1 percentage point decline in China's economy usually depresses world economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, but the IMF projects that next year's global growth rate will be lowered by only 0.1 percentage points, which indicates that growth momentum to offset the impact of China will gain traction.

This is also supported by the recent trade forecasts by both the IMF and the World Trade Organization that put world trade growth at over 3 percent next year. This means that as long as there is no steep contraction in China's economy next year but only a moderate slowdown to 4.8 percent, world economic growth will still outperform this year, reaching 3.1 percent, still low relative to the average growth rate of 3.8 percent in the 20 years before the pandemic.

Stability is in short supply in this age of change and turbulence. In the short run, the world economy may remain sluggish. That said, signs of a global supply chain restoration and an easing of inflation are emerging. A new round of the technological and industrial revolution is in the making. As peace, development and cooperation are the common interests of all, we expect great-power competition may become more rational, and the strategic competition between China and the United States may become more stable and orderly. Political correctness may give way to pragmatic cooperation, and economic and trade cooperation will again become the ballast underpinning international relations.

However, I believe that IMF's forecast for China is not exactly in line with reality. Judging from the first three quarters of data, China's economy has generally been recovering — on an upward trajectory — especially in the third quarter, when the rebound was palpable but the foundation was still weak.

In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in constant price terms. GDP grew by 4.5 percent in Q1, 6.3 percent in Q2 and 4.9 percent in Q3. The major swing is the result of a low base last year. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy has made a steady recovery. GDP growth in the third quarter was 1.3 percent, translating into an annual growth rate of 5.2 percent. Overall, positive factors are building for a stable and steady recovery.

First, aggregate demand is improving, but there are structural challenges. Consumption plays a pivotal role in economic growth. In the January-September period, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.8 percent year-on-year; online retail sales nationwide rose by 11.6 percent. Online retail sales of physical goods reached 9.04 trillion RMB, an increase of 8.9 percent, and accounted for 26.4 percent of total retail sales of consumer goods. Foodstuffs, clothing and consumption goods increased respectively by 10.4, 9.6 and 8.5 percent. In the first nine months, commercial property sold — as measured by floor area — fell by 7.5 percent and sales of commercial property dropped by 4.6 percent.

Demand for investment is still relatively sluggish. From January to September, fixed asset investment grew by 3.1 percent year-on-year. However, manufacturing investment grew by 6.2 percent, outperforming January-August growth by 0.3 percentage points. Private investment fell by 0.6 percent in the January-September period, narrowing by 0.1 percentage point compared with the January-August figures. But the real estate market adjustment is not over. In the first nine months, investment in real estate dropped by 9.1 percent year-on-year, weighing heavily on economic growth.

Foreign trade saw structural changes. In dollar terms, total imports and exports fell by 7.2 percent year-on-year from January to September, while total exports fell by 5.7 percent resulting in a trade surplus of $630.4 billion U.S. dollars. In September, total imports and exports fell by 6.2 percent year-on-year in dollar terms but increased by 4.9 percent on a monthly basis), further narrowing the decline. So far this year, China's orders from the United States, Europe and Japan have declined, but trade with countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative has expanded. Developing countries also saw expansion.

Second, supply chains are improving steadily. The service sector took the lead in the recovery: In the first three quarters, the value added in the service sector grew by 6 percent year-on-year. Value-added grew in accommodations and catering (14.4 percent), information software and information tech services (12.1 percent), leasing and business services (9.5 percent), transportation and storage (7.5 percent) and postal and financial services (7.0 percent. In September, the production index of the service industry grew by 6.9 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month, and the growth rate has been picking up for the second consecutive month.

Industrial production was also in good shape. In September, the value added of industry above designated size grew by 4.5 percent in real terms year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the value added in above-scale industry increased by 0.36 percentage points in September. From January to September, the value added in above-scale industry increased by 4 percent year-on-year. In September, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 50.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, marking a return to expansionary territory.

The economic recovery is also reflected in the stabalization of prices and abating recessionary concerns. CPI remained essentially flat year-on-year in September, rising by 0.2 percent over the previous month and maintaining positive growth for the third consecutive month. PPI declined by 2.5 percent year-on-year in September, narrowing by 2.9 percentage points from -5.4 percent in June, and rising by 0.4 percent in September, marking positive growth for the second consecutive month.

Overall, the main economic indicators for the first three quarters of the year have been on a rebound trajectory. Going forward, macro policy should continue to seek progress while maintaining stability. This proactive fiscal policy should be implemented with enhanced intensity and effectiveness, and the government should continue to improve its tax- and fee-reduction measures, pivoting support for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual entrepreneurs and industries going through hardship. Also, financial resources and policy tools could be better coordinated to ensure funding where it is needed, especially where key investment projects are in place.

Prudent monetary policy should remain targeted. At the aggregate level, a variety of monetary policy tools have been comprehensively applied to ensure that the growth of the money supply and the scale of social financing basically match nominal economic growth. Efforts should be made to improve the transmission mechanism to better shore up the real economy. Financing costs should be steered down incrementally.

In terms of structure, more policy support should be in place for key areas and weak links, such as inclusive financing for small and micro enterprises and support for manufacturing, green development, innovation and infrastructure. It is important to ensure financing for the completion of pre-sold housing projects and for housing rent loans.

Last comes the real estate sector. In the pre-pandemic era, real estate was at the forefront of driving China's economy. Real estate investment accounted for about one-third of the country's fixed-asset investment, and household spending on home purchases accounted for about one-third of total consumption expenditures. Real estate-related industries contributed one-third to China's GDP growth, as well as one-third of national job opportunities.

But now real estate has shrunk. Compared with three years ago, real estate investment has decreased by trillions, dragging down the incomes of real estate enterprises, along with land transaction revenues of local governments and household spending on home purchases.

An alternative path must be pursued. I believe a digital economy-heavy approach is the answer. Investment should be ramped up by trillions. The same goes for the healthcare and elderly care industry and green and low-carbon development, among others. A multi-pronged approach will tide the economy over and cover the void left by real estate structural adjustments. It will offer a viable pathway leading China's economy to a promising future.