当前，世界经济滞胀风险上升，外部不稳定不确定因素增加，中国国内需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力犹存。在此背景下，中国经济实现全年增长预期目标有难度。但上半年，中国经济顶住了超预期因素的冲击，表现出了极强韧性。下半年，随着高效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，“一揽子”稳定经济政策措施效应不断显现，中国经济有望继续回升。

一、四大亮点

上半年，中国GDP实际增长2.5%。二季度，受到疫情和境外多重因素影响，GDP增长了0.4%。5月、6月，得益于各项政策发力，主要经济指标已出现回升向上的良好态势。比如，规模以上工业增加值、制造业PMI都在回升，近两月城镇调查失业率下降。投资在上半年经济增长过程中发挥了关键性作用。概括起来讲，中国经济运行有以下亮点：

第一，通胀控制较好。中央政府实施保供稳价政策，对冲了部分输入性通胀。上半年，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨1.7%，6月份同比上涨2.5%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比上涨7.7%，6月份同比上涨6.1%。

第二，外贸进出口强劲增长。上半年，中国货物进出口19.8万亿元，同比增长9.4%。其中，出口11.14万亿元，增长13.2%；进口8.66万亿元，增长4.8%；贸易顺差2.48万亿元。不仅贸易规模扩大，贸易结构也在优化。一般贸易进出口增长13.1%，占进出口总额的比重为64.2%，比上年同期提高2.1个百分点。

第三，受美联储加息影响较小。随着美联储加息，日元、英镑、欧元均在贬值。相比之下，人民币对美元汇率保持相对稳定，贬值幅度较小，呈现双向波动，反映出中国金融体系和经济基本面韧性都比较强。

第四，产业转型升级加快。上半年，高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.6%，快于全部规模以上工业6.2个百分点。高技术制造业和服务业投资分别增长23.8%和12.6%。各项政策引导资金和资源流入低碳经济领域。

上半年，中国经济的优良表现主要受益于统筹疫情防控和经济发展“一揽子”政策的有效实施。在保障物流畅通和供应链平稳方面，尤其是在稳定1.6亿户市场主体，包括中小微企业和个体工商户方面，打出了政策“组合拳”，效果显著。

二、物价表现较好

上半年，中国CPI整体在低位运行，平均只有1.7%；最近几个月回升，6月份达到2.5%，符合3%左右的政策目标。与此同时，PPI逐月回落，从去年10月份最高点13.5%回落至今年6月份6.1%。尤其是基本消费品价格稳定，菜篮子工程、米袋子工程保障有力。食品价格相对稳定，市场规模扩大，保障了民众基本生活需求。上游涨价，必然传导到终端消费品，近期CPI温和上升，这个趋势会延续，但在可控范围内。PPI回落，但下半年可能仍有一定上涨压力。

全球通胀高企，具体体现在粮食、石油、天然气、铁矿石、煤炭等基础原材料等价格上升。中国作为一个外向型经济体，主要基础商品依赖进口，自身努力只能部分对冲输入性通胀压力。原材料价格上涨，推升工业生产经营成本。中国是制造业大国，不可避免地遭受影响。中下游的中小微企业和民营企业受到影响最大。

三、外贸逆势上涨

上半年，中国外贸进出口增长9.4%，难能可贵。对主要贸易伙伴，例如对东盟、欧盟、美国、日本、韩国、“一带一路”沿线国家进出口都在增长。而且，高附加值的机电产品、服务贸易、数字贸易出口增长势头较好，新业态、新模式发展较快，一般贸易比重上升，与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易增长快于平均水平，民营企业在出口中的比重上升。

下半年，外部需求会继续收缩，对中国出口不利。此外，美元加息、人民币贬值不利中国进口。同时，贸易条件和国际环境也存在诸多不确定性。

中国经济韧性强，产业链配套能力世界独一无二。中国将继续推进改革开放，优化营商环境，加大研发投入，促进外贸转型。但是，中国外贸增长速度可能会下降。

四、正常复苏可期

展望未来，中国经济仍然面临诸多挑战和潜在风险。从短期看，输入性通胀压力大、年轻人失业率高企、居民消费持续低迷、房地产市场深度调整、全球金融动荡和市场预期不稳定等，都会影响中国经济恢复正常。长期来看，老龄化社会来临、新旧动能转换和中美竞争加剧，也会影响中国经济的可持续发展。

但从近两个月的趋势来看，中国主要经济指标已经止跌企稳、回升反弹。我预计，三季度中国经济会强劲反弹，GDP增长5%以上，四季度延续这个趋势，但不会超过6%。明年中国经济恢复正常，预计GDP增长5.2%。“十四五”期间，中国经济平均增速可望保持在5%左右。

In the first half of this year, China's economy demonstrated great resilience that exceeded expectations. The risk of global stagflation is rising, compounded by mounting external instability, increasing uncertainty and the persistent triple-pressure of contracting domestic demand, supply shocks and weakened expectations.Against this backdrop, the Chinese economy faces significant headwinds as it seeks to achieve its annual growth target. But in the second half of the year, thanks to the efficient coordination of pandemic control and economic and social development, the policy mix for stabilizing the economy will shore up growth.

I. Four highlights

In the first half of this year, China's GDP grew by 2.5 percent in real terms. In the second quarter, it grew by 0.4 percent due to the impact of the ongoing pandemic and multiple external factors. In May and June, as the effect of various policies began to set in, key economic indicators suggested a rebound. For example, the added value of large-scale industries and manufacturing PMI picked up, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been dropping. Investment played a pivotal role in spurring economic growth in the first six months. In a nutshell, China's economy has distinct bright spots.

First, inflation is well under control. The central government implemented policies to shore up supply and stabilize prices, which help fend off the impact of imported inflation. In the first half of the year, the CPI rose by 1.7 percent year-on-year, and by 2.5 percent year-on-year, in June, while PPI in the same month rose by 7.7 percent year-on-year, and 6.1 percent year-on-year.

Second, foreign trade has grown strongly. In the first half of the year, China's imports and exports of goods amounted to 19.8 trillion yuan ($2.9 trillion), up 9.4 percent year-on-year. Exports accounted for 11.14 trillion yuan, up 13.2 percent, and imports for 8.66 trillion yuan, up 4.8 percent. Hence, the trade surplus topped 2.48 trillion yuan. Not only has trade grown in volume but its structure is also being optimized. General trade grew by 13.1 percent, accounting for 64.2 percent of aggregate trade volume, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

Third, the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike has had a relatively modest impact on Chinese currency. While the increase caused the Japanese yen, British pound and euro to depreciate, the RMB remained relatively stable against the U.S. dollar, albeit with a moderate depreciation with two-way fluctuations. This reflects the resilience of China's financial system and its strong economic fundamentals.

Fourth, China's industrial transformation and upgrading has accelerated. In the first half of the year, the value added in the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 9.6 percent year-on-year — 6.2 percentage points faster than all large-scale industries. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and service industries grew by 23.8 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, various policies have facilitated the flow of capital and resources to empower a low-carbon economy.

The stellar performance of the Chinese economy in the first six months is primarily due to effective implementation of a policy mix coordinating the pandemic response with economic development. This mix has proved effective in ensuring the smooth functioning of logistics and supply chains — especially in shoring up China's 160 million market players, including small, medium and micro enterprises and the self-employed.

II. Inflation controlled relatively well

In the first half of the year, the CPI as a whole was running at a low level, averaging only 1.7 percent. It has picked up in recent months, reaching 2.5 percent in June, in line with the policy target of around 3 percent. Meanwhile, the PPI fell month-on-month, from a peak of 13.5 percent in October last year to 6.1 percent in June this year. In particular, prices of basic consumer goods remained stable, thus providing robust support for the “vegetable basket project” and “rice bag project.”Food prices have remained relatively stable as the market supply has grown, thus ensuring the supply of basic essentials. The price hike upstream is bound to be transmitted to consumer goods, and so the recent trend of moderate gain in CPI may continue, but within a controllable range. PPI has dropped, but the second half of the year may still see some upward pressure.　

Global inflation has remained elevated and is reflected in the rising prices of primary raw materials, such as food, oil, natural gas, iron ore and coal. As an externally oriented economy, China relies on imports for its primary commodities, and so domestic supplies only partially offset imported inflationary pressure. Rising prices of raw materials lead to higher industrial costs, which means repercussions for China as a large manufacturing country. Small, medium, micro and private enterprises in the middle and lower reaches are set to bear the brunt.

III. Foreign trade rises against trend

In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade grew by a remarkable 9.4 percent. Imports and exports to major trading partners, such as ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, Japan, South Korea and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative saw growth. Moreover, exports of high value-added electromechanical products, trade in services and digital trade are growing at a faster pace. New industries and models are developing faster, and the proportion of general trade is increasing. Trade with Belt and Road countries is growing faster than average. And private enterprises account for a larger portion of China's exports.

In the second half of the year, China may well face the headwind of shrinking external demand. In addition, the rate hike by the U.S. Fed and the devaluation of the Chinese yuan will also work against China's imports, a problem compounded by other uncertainties in trade and the international environment.

That said, China's economy is resilient, as it is supported by unparalleled industrial chains. The country will continue to promote reform and opening-up, optimize the business environment, increase investment in research and development and promote the transformation of the foreign trade mix. But we still need to bear in mind the prospect of slower trade growth.

IV. Recovery expected

Looking ahead, China's economy faces multiple challenges and potential risks. In the short term, several factors will weigh on economic recovery, including imported inflationary pressure, high unemployment among youth, subdued consumer spending, a profound adjustment in the real estate market and turbulence in global financial markets. In the long run, an aging population, a shift of gears from old to new growth drivers an heightened competition between China and the United States will also pose challenges to the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.

China's major economic indicators have stabilized and are on the rebound. If the trajectory of the past two months is any guide, I expect China's economy to rebound strongly in the third quarter, with GDP growth reaching over 5 percent and momentum continuing into the fourth quarter, but range-bound at 6 percent. As for 2023, China's economy is expected to return to normal, with GDP growth reaching 5.2 percent. Over the course of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's economy is expected to maintain an average growth rate of around 5 percent.