中国国家主席习近平、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京、印尼总统佐科·维多多，出席“一带一路”国际论坛。

美国和中国的贸易战创造了东南亚实力竞争的新维度。中国的“一带一路”倡议和美国的“印太战略”或许随着两国企业寻求新边疆而获得新的动力。虽然特朗普总统和习近平主席在布宜诺斯艾利斯达成了不确定的休战，但这一休战在不久之后就会经受考验。因此，美国和中国企业会继续迁往东南亚，或扩大它们在该地区已有的影响力。这一地区已经做好充分准备，来吸收重新定向的来自世界两个最大经济体的贸易和投资。对东南亚地区来说，这场贸易战可以启动它们亟需的改革，或者使目前提高竞争力的步伐加快。然而，由于发展水平参差不齐，一些国家似乎比其他国家更容易从贸易战中获益。

东南亚地区充满活力。它有年轻的人口，有大量的适龄劳动力，有庞大的消费需求，有不断增加的基础设施投资，有相对的政治稳定。按照世界银行2017年的数据，该地区68%的人口在15-64岁。AC尼尔森估计，到2020年，该地区的中产阶级人口将达到4亿，比2012年多一倍。区域经济越来越具有竞争力，世界经济论坛2017-18年全球竞争力指数显示，与上年相比，马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国略有进步（排名上升一到两位），而文莱、印度尼西亚和越南则取得令人瞩目的进展（排名上升了五位以上）。该地区也是全球价值链中最活跃的地区之一，联合国贸发会议2017年全球投资报告显示，在全球价值链参与率方面，新加坡达到76%，马来西亚为64%，菲律宾为58%，泰国为52%，越南为51%。泰国、马来西亚、越南、印度尼西亚和菲律宾还都是发展中国家中位居前列的出口国。

所有这些都有助于该地区吸引外国、尤其是美国和中国这类贸易战主角国家的资本。中国和美国分别是东盟的最大和第四大贸易伙伴。不过，虽然中国在贸易领域占主导地位，但美国仍然是该地区的最大投资国。目前有3000多家美国公司在该地区开展业务， 2017年东盟商业前景调查报告显示，在这些美国公司当中，87%的公司预计未来五年将增加对东盟的贸易和投资。而且，东盟对美国的投资其实也比对中国多。即便如此，中国在投资领域也取得了巨大进展，成为了柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝和马来西亚的最大投资国，以及新加坡和越南的第二大投资国。

东南亚正在迅速成为吸引中国海外直接投资的一块磁石。在2017年经济学人智库（EIU）对59个经济体进行的调查中，新加坡超过美国成为中国海外资本的首选目的地。在中国投资方面，该地区其他国家的排名也上升了几个级数，其中包括排名第四的马来西亚（2015年排名第20位）、泰国（2015年第38位，2017年第18位）、印度尼西亚（从2015年的第44位升至第26位），菲律宾（从2015年的第39位升至第28位）和越南（从2015年的第40位升至第30位）。按照国家来细分中国的全球行业投资，则进一步显示了该地区对这个庞大北方邻国的重要性。越南是中国汽车领域投资的第五大目标市场，新加坡是它的第三大金融服务市场。在消费品方面，马来西亚、越南、新加坡、菲律宾和印度尼西亚分别是中国的第二、第四、第五、第六和第九大市场。在能源领域，越南、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国分别是中国的第四、第五、第六和第八大市场。此外，菲律宾和马来西亚还是中国企业的第九和第十大电信市场。

中国地理位置接近，出资慷慨，产能过剩，再加上有中国-东盟自贸协定的正式机制和“一带一路”等倡议，这些都有助于中国在该地区开展经济外交。2013年选择在雅加达宣布21世纪海上丝绸之路和亚投行计划，也说明中国对该地区的重视。与东盟互联互通总体规划相契合的新加坡-昆明铁路项目的竣工，将进一步让东南亚大陆和中国融为一体。同样，对工业园区和港口基础设施的投资（如马来西亚的关丹和马六甲、缅甸的皎漂、柬埔寨的西哈努克市，以及中方有兴趣的印度尼西亚新不碌港和肯德尔港项目、泰国的克拉地峡运河项目），也使中国定位为区域互联互通的推动者。

相比之下，较少的制度安排（如东盟与美国的“贸易与投资框架协议”和“扩大经济合作计划”），对于紧缩开支的看法，“印太战略”中并不十分明确的经济维度，都对美国继续与该地区接触构成了挑战。虽然人们欢迎通过努力利用私人融资，以及同日本和澳大利亚等合作伙伴的合作，来满足该地区迅速增长的基础设施融资需求，但是，动员私人资本的拖拖拉拉，私人资本对高风险的厌恶，这些都加大了国有资本的优势。即便如此，对既定标准的承诺和给当地带来更多机会，显然构成了私人融资的优势。虽然规模相对较小，但美国宣布给该地区的1.13亿美元基础设施、技术和能源投资首付款依然受到了欢迎，因为它具有促进私人资本流动的潜力。

对外贸易结构为东南亚国家提供了一定的缓冲和机会。在该地区与中美两国的贸易中，电机和设备及零部件是最高等级商品，占对华贸易的近30%，占对美贸易的1/4。与容易被替代的低端产品，如农业出口产品相比，价值链的深度融合和产品附加值的日益提高可以确保在激烈的贸易战中拥有更大的抗压能力。该地区消费群体的存在也有可能吸引更多的制造商南迁。

此外，尽管美国在特朗普政府治下越来越倾向于双边主义，但东南亚国家对多边自贸协定的积极关注仍然能够给该地区带来好处。马来西亚、新加坡和越南是重新命名的“全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定” （CPTPP）的签署国（2018年3月），新加坡于今年7月批准了这一协定。印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国也表示有兴趣加入该贸易协定。东盟十国还在积极参与“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”（RCEP）谈判，去年这一谈判在马尼拉举行了首次领导人会议，协议有望于今年11月在新加坡签署。奇怪的是，CPTPP和RCEP美国都缺席，虽然特朗普总统确实提出美国重新加入CPTPP的可能性，但他的前提条件是重新谈判条款使之有利于美国的利益。

随着贸易战加剧，东南亚国家正在寻找相应的调整和适应方法。那些已经同美国和中国有较高贸易投资额的国家有望获得更多投资。越南、马来西亚和泰国是中国在该地区的最大贸易伙伴，不奇怪的是，这些国家也是美国在该地区的最大贸易伙伴之一。虽然这些国家有自己独特的发展环境，但它们的发展战略中也有共通之处，例如要继续进行机构能力建设和基础设施投资。因此，与同类国家相比，早先满足了基本发展需求的国家如今拥有一定的竞争力。尽管如此，其他区域国家也没有袖手旁观，相反，它们正在各自采取措施，确保让中美贸易战转化为一次机遇。

President of China Xi Jinping, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, President of Indonesia Joko Widodo at the Belt & Road International Forum

The United States-China trade war is creating a new dimension for power rivalry in Southeast Asia. China's Belt and Road Initiative and America's Indo-Pacific strategy may receive fresh impetus as companies in both countries seek out new frontiers. Although an uneasy truce between President Trump and Xi was reached in Buenos Aires, it will soon be tested. As such, U.S. and Chinese firms will continue to relocate to Southeast Asia or expand their existing footprint in the region. The region is well poised to absorb re-directed trade and investment flows from the world's two largest economies. For Southeast Asia, the trade war can also kick-start much needed reforms or accelerate the pace of present efforts to boost competitiveness. However, due to uneven levels of development and diversity, some countries are better positioned to benefit from the trade war than others.

Southeast Asia is dynamic and robust. It has a youthful population with a large labor-age force, large consumer demand, increasing infrastructure investments, and relative political stability. Based on World Bank 2017 figures, 68% of the region's population is between 15 and 64. AC Nielsen estimates the region's middle class will reach 400 million by 2020, doubling 2012 figures. Regional economies are increasingly more competitive. The World Economic Forum 2017-18 Global Competitiveness Index showed modest gains (one-two notches in the rankings) made by Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand compared to their previous year's performance, while Brunei, Indonesia and Vietnam made impressive strides (five and above places' ascent in the rankings). The region is also among the most active in global value chains (GVCs). The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's 2017 World Investment Report listed Singapore's GVC participation rate at 76%, Malaysia's at 64%, Philippines' at 58%, Thailand's at 52%, and Vietnam's at 51%. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are also among the top exporting countries from the developing world.

All these contribute in making the region attractive to foreign capital, not least from trade war protagonists, such as the U.S. and China. China and the U.S. are ASEAN's largest and fourth largest trade partners respectively. However, while China dominates the trade scene, the U.S. remains the region's top investor. More than 3,000 US companies do business in the region and the 2017 ASEAN Business Outlook Survey showed that 87% of these American firms anticipate greater trade and investment in ASEAN in the next five years. In addition, ASEAN is actually investing more in the U.S. than in China. This said, China has been making tremendous inroads in the investment space as well, becoming the top investor for Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Malaysia, and the second largest investor for Singapore and Vietnam.

Southeast Asia is fast becoming a magnet for China's overseas direct investment (ODI). In a survey of 59 economies done by The Economist Intelligence Unit in 2017, Singapore had eclipsed the U.S. to become the top destination for Chinese outbound capital. Other regional countries have also climbed up several notches in terms of Chinese investment. This includes fourth ranked Malaysia (up from 20th in 2015), Thailand (ranked 18th in 2017 from 38th in 2015), Indonesia (ranked 26th from 44th in 2015), Philippines (ranked 28th from 39th in 2015) and Vietnam (ranked 30th from 40th in 2015). Breaking down China's global sectoral investments by country will further reveal the region's significance for its big northern neighbor. Vietnam was the fifth largest target market for Chinese investments in the automobile sector, while Singapore is the third largest market for financial services. In terms of consumer goods, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines, and Indonesia were ranked second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and ninth top markets respectively. In the energy field, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand were ranked fourth, fifth, sixth, and eighth largest markets respectively. In addition, Philippines and Malaysia accounted for the ninth and tenth largest telecoms markets for Chinese enterprises.

China's proximity, financial largesse, surplus capacity, formal mechanisms such as the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, and initiatives like the Belt and Road support its economic diplomacy in the region. Choosing Jakarta as the venue to announce the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank back in 2013 also demonstrate the importance China attaches to the region. The completion of the Singapore-Kunming railway project, which jives with the ASEAN Master Plan for Connectivity, will further integrate mainland Southeast Asia with China. Likewise, investments into industrial park and port infrastructure (e.g. Kuantan and Melaka in Malaysia, Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, Sihanoukville in Cambodia, interest in Indonesian port projects like New Priok and Kendal and in Thailand's Kra Canal project) will position China as a facilitator of regional connectivity.

In contrast, less institutional arrangements (e.g. the ASEAN-US Trade and Investment Framework Agreement and Expanded Economic Engagement), perceptions of retrenchment, and the less-pronounced economic dimension of the Indo-Pacific strategy present challenges for continued U.S. engagement with the region. While efforts to leverage private finance and collaboration with partners like Japan and Australia to meet the region's burgeoning demand for infrastructure funding are welcomed, delays in mobilizing private capital and its higher risk aversion heighten the advantage of state capital. That said, commitment to established standards and greater opportunities for local content apparently constitute the pros of private financing. Although relatively small, the U.S. announcement of a $113 million down payment for infrastructure, technology, and energy investments in the region was welcomed, as it has the potential to catalyze private capital flows.

The structure of its external trade provides some cushion and opportunities for Southeast Asia. Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof constitute the top class of goods traded by the region with both the U.S. and China, accounting for close to 30% of its trade with China and a quarter of its trade with the U.S. Deep integration in the value chain and increasingly higher value added ensure greater resilience amidst the raging trade war compared to churning out easily substitutable low-end goods, such as agricultural exports. The presence of downstream ecosystem in the region may also entice more manufacturers to head south.

Furthermore, despite America's increasing preference for bilateralism under the Trump administration, Southeast Asia's active interest in multilateral free trade agreements will still offer benefits for the region. Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are signatories (March 2018) to the rebranded Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), with Singapore ratifying last July. Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand also expressed their interest to join the trade pact. The ten-country bloc are also actively taking part in negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The first summit was held in Manila last year and the agreement is expected to be signed this November in Singapore. The U.S. is curiously absent in both the CPTPP and RCEP, although President Trump did raise the possibility of the U.S. rejoining the CPTPP if terms can be renegotiated to benefit American interests.

As the trade war intensifies, Southeast Asia is finding ways to adjust and adapt accordingly. Countries which already have a higher trade and investment portfolio with both the U.S. and China are expected to get even more investment. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are China's top trading partners in the region and not surprisingly, these countries are also among America's biggest trade partners in the region. While these countries have their own unique developmental milieus, they share several elements in development strategies, such as continued institutional capacity building and infrastructure investments. As such, countries that were early to address basic developmental requirements now enjoy some competitive headway compared to their peers. This said, other regional countries are not sitting idly by and are instead taking their own measures to ensure that they can turn the US-China trade war into an opportunity.