美国新总统特朗普上台之后，随即签署行政令，正式宣布美国退出TPP。尽管如此，TPP的余温仍在。而且，一谈及全球贸易投资规则的未来发展，TPP始终是个绕不开的话题。那么，TPP究竟是死了还是没死？抑或是暂时中止？对于这个问题，需要从美国的内外两个不同层面来解读。

第一，从美国国内来看，尽管TPP只是特朗普“反奥（巴马）运动”的一个标志性动作，但其仍有一定的民意基础。需要指出的是，TPP主要是在奥巴马执政期内逐步成长发展起来的，但它并非是奥巴马政府“一手遮天”制造出来的。换言之，TPP实则是美国国内精英阶层对未来全球贸易投资规则的设想与判断，更是美国社会对全球自由贸易理念的重新诠释。因此，从这个层面来看，TPP的重要性不可小觑，而其后续影响还没有完全发酵。但TPP同样反映出美国国内社会就全球贸易投资规则发展的意见分歧，如对TPP现有的合作框架，美国国内的烟草集团、农业集团以及以华尔街为代表的金融保险业集团等均表示了不同程度的不满，这在一定程度上佐证了特朗普政府宣布退出TPP决定的“正确性”和“合法性”。

尽管特朗普政府已经公开宣布退出TPP，并表示将通过强化双边经济合作框架提升美国在贸易投资合作中的经济利益，但这不能说明美国已经放弃了对全球经贸规则的主导权。恰恰相反，特朗普政府只是在贸易问题上选择了战术上的“退避三舍”，战略上的“以退为进”、“退而求攻”。

这里值得一提的是，贸易问题无疑是特朗普政府对外经济政策的重中之重。与美国贸易政策相关的传统职能部门是商务部、贸易代表以及隶属于国会的国际贸易委员会等，但部分贸易争端还涉及能源部、环境部等边缘部门。在此基础上，特朗普2016年12月宣布新设“白宫国家贸易委员会”，意图显然是要加强总统在贸易投资问题上的直接管控，同时在“意识形态”上加强白宫对美国贸易政策制定的影响。

第二，从美国境外来看，TPP存活下来还存一线希望。尽管美国宣布退出TPP，但日本、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等国家仍在TPP问题上表现出“不死心”的态势，甚至仍有可能在暗中谋划一个“没有美国参加”的TPP合作框架。当然，日本等各方不愿意放弃TPP的主要动因之一是它们已为此支付了巨大成本。而且日本更希望将TPP的部分条款直接引入RCEP或中日韩FTA等经济合作框架，这就进一步加剧了相关经济合作框架的构建难度。另一方面，日本国内多数意见认为，在美方宣布放弃TPP的背景下，日本仍应当坚持构建类似于TPP的“高水平、高标准”多边贸易及投资合作框架。因此，日美FTA或许是一个不错的选择。但尽管如此，针对日美FTA谈判，日本也极为担忧美国要求其以超越TPP的水准开放国内农业市场等。

综上所述，TPP问题仍悬而未决，需要冷静观察与应对。

Early in his presidency, President Trump signed a presidential memorandum announcing America's withdrawal from TPP. But TPP survived the setback, and people are still referring to TPP as an embodiment of the shape of things to come in global trade and investment development. So it begs the question: Is TPP is alive? Dead? Or just suspended?

First, for Trump to dismiss TPP carries the anti-Obama symbolism, but TPP in and of itself does have considerable popular support. While TPP was largely devised and fostered during the Obama presidency, it was not the brainchild of Obama administration alone. More accurately, it represents the vision and expectations of the American elite for the future shape of global trade and investment rules, and a modern interpretation of the global free trade concept of American society. From this perspective, TPP carried much weight and the fallout of US withdrawal will continue to reverberate. Admittedly, TPP cannot hide the divided views in the American society regarding global trade and investment rules and different interest groups, such as tobacco, agriculture, finance and insurance (or Wall Street), find TPP in its current form inadequate. That probably gives some legitimacy and justification to Trump's decision to quit TPP.

While the Trump administration has announced withdrawal from TPP, in favor of bilateral economic cooperation and negotiation to protect US interests, it does not necessarily mean the US has given up its dominancy in global trade rule-making. To the contrary, the Trump administration only made a technical retreat to set the stage for broad strategic gains.

Trade has been front and center of the Trump economic and trade agenda. In the US government, trade involves primarily the Commerce Department, USTR and ITC, etc., with the energy and environmental agencies playing a marginal role. In order to strengthen presidential oversight of trade issues, Trump announced the establishment of the National Trade Council, through which the White House could also wield direct ideological influence on trade policy-making.

Second, other TPP signatories, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, are not willing to let the deal fall by the wayside. They are planning a TPP without the US. Japan, for example, has invested heavily in TPP and that is behind Japan's reluctance to drop the deal. What's more, Japan wants to replicate some of the TPP provisions in the RCEP and China-Japan-ROK economic cooperation framework, which may complicate efforts on these fronts. Also, some voices in Japan are arguing that even though the US is leaving TPP, Japan should go on with its own pursuit of a high-standard multilateral trade and investment cooperation framework. An FTA between Japan and the US may be a viable option. But even in that scenario, Japan may be wary of demands to further open up its agriculture market beyond the TPP standards.

In sum, TPP is very much up in the air, and we will have to wait and see where it goes.