近年中美双边贸易发展势头有所减弱。

根据中方统计，2015年中美贸易总额为5583亿美元，比2014年微幅增长0.58%。中国对美出口4095亿美元，年增3.4%。而根据美方统计，当年美中贸易总额为5981亿美元，与2014年相比增长1.25%，其中美国对华出口1162亿美元，是2009年来首次出现负增长（-6.3%）。

根据中方统计，2016年1-10月，中美双边贸易额为4180.3亿美元，同比下降9.1%。中国对美出口为3125.7亿美元，下降8%；中国从美国进口为1054.6亿美元，下降12.2%。中国对美国贸易顺差2071亿美元，下降5.6%。根据美方统计，2016年1-10月，美中贸易总额4884.9亿美元，同比下降5.4%。美国对中国出口920.3亿美元，下降3.5%；美国从中国进口3964.6亿美元，下降5.8%。美国对中国贸易逆差3044.3亿美元，下降6.5%，比上半年情况略有改善。

(1)对华贸易逆差

多年来，美国对华始终存在巨额贸易逆差。2014年，美国对华贸易逆差3426亿美元，占美国总贸易逆差的50.6%。2015年，美国对华贸易逆差3657亿美元，占美国7371亿美元总贸易逆差的49.6%。2016年上半年，美国对华贸易逆差1610亿美元，占其3483亿美元总贸易逆差的46.2%，略有下降。

美国的贸易逆差由三部分组成。首先是竞争型逆差，日本的汽车和欧洲的空客飞机对美国的同类产业构成威胁，而且处理起来必须慎之又慎。其次是资源型逆差，美国从美洲和中东地区进口大量原油，从非洲和亚洲地区进口大量矿产资源，这是其贸易逆差的重要组成部分，而且难以解决。第三是补充型逆差，美国从中国、东亚和东南亚进口日用消费品，作为经济、产业结构和人民生活的重要补充，这对美国是有利的。

中国向美国出口的大多是物美价廉的日用消费品，它有助于缓解美国的通货膨胀，使中低收入人群获益。

传统贸易分析方法无法解释当前的贸易失衡。

首先，中国改革开放以来，约70%的在华海外投资来自东亚。曾导致其他东亚经济体与美国之间出现贸易逆差的产品，现在是在中国内地制造，从而产生了“贸易平衡转移效应”。这些产品的大部分零部件来自东亚，它们不是“中国制造”，而是“东亚地区制造”，这部分产品的出口收入是由东亚地区分享，而不是中国独享。但根据原产地原则，这些出口到美国的产品的所有价值都算到了中国头上。其实中美贸易不能简单看成双边贸易，它是多边贸易，是美国与东亚地区之间的贸易。

其次，中美贸易的一个突出特点是60%属于加工贸易。中国只通过加工分得利润的很小一部分。美国进口商、批发商和零售商的利润份额远大于中国制造商和出口商的份额。因此会有“中国顺差，美国获利”的现象。正如美国经济学家查尔斯·卡德莱克所说，根据原产地原则，美国一只苹果手机的178美元制造成本是计在中国账下，因为中国是最后组装地，但中国从每部手机得到的附加值只有6.5美元。

美国从1971年起出现贸易逆差，已延续46年。根据美国海关的统计，美国对90多个国家和地区有贸易逆差。不应该把所有怨气都撒向人民币汇率。相反，这是经济全球化、产业调整和大规模国际分工的自然结果，是一个无法逆转的结构性问题。

(2)人民币汇率问题

多年来，历届美国政府一直迫使其贸易伙伴的货币升值，以减少贸易逆差。美国在上世纪80年代早期对德国马克、80年代中期对日元、80年代末期对新台币，以及90年代早期对韩元都是这么做的。新世纪伊始，美国同样强压人民币大幅升值。但结果如何呢？这些年来，美国与德国、日本、台湾地区、韩国和中国仍然保持着贸易逆差，从来也没扭转过。2015年，美国的贸易逆差对德国达742亿美元，对日本686亿美元，对台湾地区148亿美元，对韩国283亿美元，对中国是3657亿美元。

再以中国为例。从2005年7月到2016年8月初，人民币升值36%，而美国对华贸易逆差从2016亿美元增加到2015年的3657亿美元，增长了81.4%。

这些事实说明，一个国家或地区的贸易顺差或逆差，与其汇率并无太大关系。汇率不是决定性因素。相反，逆差或顺差只是一种交易活动，是基于市场的比较优势使然。一个国家或地区的产品竞争力取决于一系列因素。为减少自身贸易逆差而简单强迫对手将货币升值，是一种传统的狭隘的国际贸易思维。时代变了，情况日益复杂，这种传统思维必须调整更新。

经过11年的汇率改革，人民币汇率已经基本上靠市场决定。汇率浮动区间从最初的0.3%，增加到0.5%、1%、2%和现在的3%。过去半年里，人民币汇率再次盯住一揽子货币，基本上保持了稳定。眼下人们更多关注的是人民币对美元的贬值，而忽视了其对日元、欧元和英镑不同程度的升值。

人民币对美元贬值的主要原因不在人民币，而在美元自身。2016年10月10日，美元指数突破97，次日人民币汇率中间价为6.7098。11月15日，美元指数超过100，11月16日人民币汇率中间价为6.8592。12月22日，美元指数上升到103.36，达2002年以来14年内的最高点，次日人民币汇率中间价为6.9463。面对美元大幅升值，许多发展中国家货币都遭遇了比较剧烈的贬值，相比之下人民币的波动却相对温和。这是公认且不容歪曲的事实。

2016年10月1日，IMF正式将人民币纳入特别提款权（SDR）篮子，成为它的五种储备货币之一。这是对人民币汇率市场化改革和人民币得到广泛使用的认可。

2017年中美经贸关系将进入多事之秋。

有强烈保护主义色彩的特朗普团队上台后，将不可避免地在全球推行贸易保护主义，并注定遭到世界各国的反对和报复。其结果将是害人害己，让世界经济倒退。历史上不乏这样的例子。上世纪30年代，美国陷入大萧条，胡佛总统大幅增加进口关税，以保护国内产业，遭到世界其他国家的反对。当商品不能自由跨越国界的时候，军队就会跨越国界。第二次世界大战由此爆发。

中国无意发动一场贸易战，也不惧怕贸易战。在中美经济交流的44年里，只发生过一次贸易战，即1983年的纺织品贸易争端。它最终以美国政府让步收场。值得注意的是，中国1983年的GDP不到美国的5%，2015年已经是美国的61%。今天的中国已经不是33年前的那个中国，任何美国政府都不得小觑。2015年，中国进口了美国销往海外22%的棉花、56%的大豆、26%的波音飞机和33%卖给其他国家的通用汽车。这些产品的替代品是可以在世界其他地方找到的，美国对此心知肚明。

对话比对抗好，合作比摩擦好。中国和美国互为对方的大市场。2010年以来，中国一直是美国农产品的最大市场。特朗普任命一位农业州的州长担任美国驻华大使，就是希望促进对中国的农业出口。

中国成为美国重要的贸易伙伴已有时日。2015年，（按美方统计）美中贸易额为5981亿美元，占美国对外贸易总额的16%。如果加上香港和澳门，美中贸易额则达到6426亿美元，占美国对外贸易总额的17.2%。

这也就是说，美国同样是中国重要的贸易伙伴。2015年，（按中方统计）中美贸易额为5583亿美元，占中国对外贸易总额的14.3%。中国对美国出口4095亿美元，占出口总额的18%。如果加上经由香港的出口，则出口额达4819亿美元，占中国出口总额的21.2%。2012年以来，美国已经超过欧盟成为中国最大的出口市场。

中美经贸合作前景广阔，既有巨大的机遇，也有严峻的挑战。两国合则两利，争则两败。两国政府应本着互利共赢的精神，加强对话与合作，这不仅有利于中美两国人民，也将推动世界经济的发展。

China-US bilateral trade has shown a weaker momentum in recent years.

According to Chinese statistics, China-US trade totaled $558.3 billion in 2015, increasing slightly by 0.58% over 2014. China's exports to the US reached $409.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. According to US statistics, US-China trade was $598.1 billion, a moderate growth of 1.25% compared with 2014. US exports to China totaled $116.2 billion, the first shrinkage (-6.3%) since 2009.

Bilateral trade totaled $418.03 billion from January to October 2016, falling by 9.1%, according to Chinese statistics. Chinese exports to the US were $312.57 billion, falling by 8%. Chinese imports from the US were $105.46 billion, dropping by 12.2%. China's trade surplus with the US was $207.1 billion, decreasing by 5.6%. According to US statistics, US-China trade totaled US$488.49 billion from January to October 2016, down by 5.4%. US exports to China were $92.03 billion, dropping by 3.5%. US imports from China were $396.46 billion, down by 5.8%. The US trade deficit with China was $304.43 billion, down by 6.5%, slightly better than the first half of the year.

Trade Deficit with China

For many years, the US has run a big trade deficit with China. In 2014, that deficit was $342.6 billion, accounting for 50.6% of the total US trade deficit. In 2015, the US trade deficit with China $365.7 billion, accounting for 49.6% of the total US trade deficit of $737.1 billion. In the first half of 2016, the US had a deficit of $161 billion, accounting for 46.2% of its total trade deficit of $348.3 billion, which has come down slightly for the six-month period year-on-year.

The US trade deficit is composed of three parts. First, the competitive deficit. Japan's automobiles and the Airbus aircraft from Europe constitute a threat to their counterpart industries in the US and must be handled carefully. Second, the resource deficit. The US imports a huge amount of crude oil from the Americas and Middle East and minerals from Africa and Asia. This is an important part of its trade deficit and cannot be resolved easily. Third, the supplementary deficit. The US imports daily consumer goods from China, East Asia and Southeast Asia as an important supplement to its economy, industrial structure and people's life. This is nothing but beneficial to the US.

Most of China's exports to the US are daily consumer goods of high quality yet low cost. This helps alleviate inflation in the US and benefits low and middle-income groups.

Traditional trade statistics cannot explain the current issue of trade imbalance.

First, since the start of reform and opening-up, about 70% of the foreign investment in China has come from East Asia. Products that used to create a deficit between other East Asian economies and the US have been made on the Chinese mainland, causing the “effect of trade balance transfer”. Most of the parts and components in these products are from East Asia. They are not “Made in China”, but “Made in East Asia”. The income from the exports is shared by East Asia, not solely by China. However, according to the principle of place of origin, all the value of the exports to the US is attributed to China. China-US trade cannot be simply characterized as bilateral trade. It is multilateral trade, trade between the US and East Asia.

Second, one prominent feature of China-US trade is that 60% of it is processing trade. China only gets a fraction of the profits from processing. The US importers, wholesalers and retailers get a far larger share of the profits than Chinese manufacturers and exporters. Hence the phenomenon of “surplus in China, profits in the US”. As US economist Charles Kadlec said, according to the principle of place of origin, the $178 manufacturing cost of an iPhone is put under China's account, because China is the final assembly place. China, however, only gets $6.50 of the added value of each phone.

It has been 46 years since 1971, when the US started running a foreign trade deficit. According to the statistics of the US customs authorities, the US has trade deficits with more than 90 countries and regions. The blame should not be all put on the RMB exchange rate. Rather, it is a natural result of economic globalization, industrial adjustment and massive international division of labor. This is a structural issue that cannot be reversed.

The Issue of the RMB Exchange Rate

It has been the practice of the successive US governments over the years to force the currencies of their trading partners to significantly appreciate, so as to reduce trade deficits. The US did so to the Deutschemark in the early 1980s, to the Japanese yen in the mid-1980s, to the New Taiwan Dollar in the late 1980s, and to the ROK won in the early 1990s. Since the beginning of the new century, the US has pushed hard for significant RMB appreciation.But what has been the result of these moves? Over the years, the US has maintained trade deficits with Germany, Japan, the Taiwan region, ROK and China. This has never been reversed. In 2015, the US ran trade deficits of $74.2 billion with Germany, $68.6 billion with Japan, $14.8 billion with the Taiwan region, $28.3 billion with the ROK and $365.7 billion with China.

Once again, take China for example. The RMB appreciated by 36% from July 2005 to early August 2016, while the US trade deficit with China increased from $201.6 billion to $365.7 billion in 2015, up by 81.4% since 2005.

These facts show that the trade surplus or deficit of a country or region does not have much to do with its exchange rate. The exchange rate is not the deciding factor. Rather, deficit or surplus is a trading activity. It is the result of comparative advantages on a market basis. The competitiveness of the products of a country or region is determined by a host of factors. Simply forcing the currency appreciation of the counterparty to reduce one's own trade deficit is a traditional and narrow-minded thinking on international trade. Times have changed, and the situation is more complicated. Such conventional thinking must be adjusted and updated.

After 11 years of exchange-rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has basically become market driven. The band of the exchange rate fluctuation has increased from the original 0.3% to 0.5%, 1%, 2% and current 3%. In the past half-year, the RMB exchange rate has been once again pegged to a basket of currencies and basically maintained stability. Now, people are more focused on the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and neglect its appreciation to different degrees against the yen, euro and pound.

The main reason for the RMB's depreciation against the dollar lies in the dollar itself, not the RMB. On Oct 10, 2016, the USDX exceeded 97, and the central parity rate of the RMB was 6.7098 the following day. On Nov 15, the USDX exceeded 100, and the central parity rate of the RMB was 6.8592 on Nov 16. On Dec 22, the USDX rose to 103.36, a 14-year high since 2002. The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9463 the next day. In the face of the significant appreciation of the US dollar, the currencies of quite many developing countries have experienced relatively sharp depreciation. By comparison, the fluctuation of the RMB is comparatively moderate. This is a widely recognized fact that must not be distorted.

On Oct 1, 2016, the International Monetary Fund officially included the RMB into the SDR basket as one of its five reserve currencies. This is a recognition of the market-based reform of the RMB exchange rate and the global use of the RMB.There is no reason that China should be labeled as a “currency manipulator”.

China-US economic and trade relations will enter an eventful period in 2017.

As the strongly protectionist Trump team takes office, they will inevitably push for trade protectionism globally, which will for sure meet with opposition and reprisals across the world. As a consequence, it will hurt all and benefit none, and the world economy will backslide. There are examples in history. In the 1930s when the US experienced the Great Depression, President Herbert Hoover raised import tariffs by a great margin to protect domestic industries. That was opposed by the rest of the world. When goods cannot move across borders freely, soldiers go beyond national borders. The Second World War thus broke out.

China has no intention to wage a trade war. Nor is it afraid of a trade war. In the 44 years of China-US economic exchanges, there has been only one trade war: the textile trade dispute in 1983. It ended with compromise made by the US government. It is worth noting that China's GDP in 1983 was less than 5% of that of the US, while China's GDP in 2015 was 61% of US GDP. Today's China is not what it was 33 years ago. Any US administration should never belittle China. In 2015, China imported 22% of US cotton, 56% of US soy beans, 26% of Boeing aircraft and 33% of the GM vehicles sold overseas. Substitutes for these products can be found elsewhere in the world. The US is fully aware of that.

Dialogue is better than confrontation, and cooperation is better than friction. China and the US are each other's big market. Since 2010, China has been the largest market for US agricultural products. Trump nominated the governor of an agricultural state to be the US ambassador to China in the hope of promoting agricultural exports to China.

China has become a vital trading partner for the US over a long period. US-China trade in 2015 was $598.1 billion, accounting for 16% of US foreign trade. If Hong Kong and Macao are included, US-China trade will be $642.6 billion, accounting for 17.2% of US foreign trade.

That said, the US is also a very important trading partner of China. In 2015, China-US trade was $558.3 billion, accounting for 14.3% of China's foreign trade. China's exports to the US were $409.5 billion, accounting for 18% of its total exports. If the $481.9 billion exports via Hong Kong are included, it will account for 21.2% of China's total exports. Since 2012, the US has surpassed the EU as China's largest export market.

China-US economic and trade cooperation faces broad prospects, with both major opportunities and daunting challenges. The two countries will lose from confrontation and gain from cooperation. The two governments should strengthen dialogue and cooperation in a win-win spirit. This will not only benefit the Chinese and American people, but also promote the development of the world economy.