当前，在影响美国对外政策包括对华关系的国内环境中，美国经济状况以及美国社会对经济发展的判断仍是最突出的因素，构成美国当前和今后一个时期内外政策的“重中之重”。

近两年，美国经济表现出较为积极的复苏迹象，2014年美国经济增长2.4%，延续了2013年经济稳定复苏的势头。劳动力市场状况的不断改善、投资支出的日渐回升、“再工业化”和制造业的重新回归、潜在需求的稳步释放、企业和金融机构资产负债表的修复、量化宽松政策退出后的资金回流增加等，都奠定了美国经济增长的基础。在世界其他主要经济体或继续衰退（如欧盟），或增长减缓（如新兴经济体）这样的分化增长大背景下，美国经济显得较为出色。然而，从长期来看，制约美国经济社会的众多深层次矛盾并没有得到彻底解决，低增长、低就业、高债务的“双低一高”成为这个时代的特征。

美国经济增长仍然低于潜在增长率水平。2008年之前，美国实际GDP增长率为3%，通胀率为2%-3%，名义GDP增长率为5%-6%。2008年以来名义GDP增长落后趋势线15%，并且低于潜在增长率。近期世界银行将2015年美国GDP下调0.5个百分点，至增长2.7％，强劲增长仍未可期。

美国经济二元现象依然严峻。经济结构中，高附加值的金融、研发设计行业和相对低生产率及低附加值的低端服务业构成美国产业结构的两极，制造业复苏和回归仍任重道远。劳动力结构中，美国就业大军越来越向高学历、高技能和低学历、低技能两端倾斜，中高技能的技术工人岗位缺失依然严重。随着劳动力人口减少，就业参与率降至62.6%，为1977年10月以来最低。闲置劳动力导致的就业缺口依然较大，根据美联储预测，美国就业缺口比均衡水平低1.2%。

巨额联邦政府债务是一个较大拖累。困扰美国的财政悬崖问题得到了很大缓解。2014财政年度，美国联邦财政赤字占GDP之比已降至2.8%，2015新财年预算案公布的财政赤字为4740亿美元，占GDP的2.5%，大大低于2009财年9.8%的水平。美国联邦政府债务快速上升势头得到遏制，但偿债来源与财富创造能力的偏离度仍处于极高水平。经济筑底回升和财政巩固，使美国联邦政府债务增速快于经济基本面与财政收入的状况得到遏制。

经过长达六年的恢复，私人部门去杠杆化结束，美国经济开始进入新一轮增长周期。家庭财富的增加与就业市场的持续改善较好地支撑了居民消费，在融资成本较低、产能利用率和商业信心提升等因素刺激下，私人投资逐渐活跃。得益于经济恢复，2014财年联邦政府赤字率从上一财年的4.1%明显收窄至2.8%。但是，各级政府债务率仍处于319.3%的全球最高水平之列，可用偿债来源与自身财富创造能力严重偏离的状况并未改善，2014年美国政府债务总额达18万亿美元 历史首次超过GDP。

美国贫富差距接近百年来新高。美联储消费者金融调查显示，2008年金融危机以来，美国低下层家庭的财富只占2013年美国整体财富的1%，而最富有的5%美国人却享有整体财富的63%，且收入比例超过历史上任何时期，中等收入群体收入水平呈下降态势，美国贫富差距进一步扩大，财富不均状况接近百年来的最高水平。

此外，需要密切跟踪美国货币政策调整对全球及美国自身经济的产生的影响。美联储在削减购债计划并最终实施利率正常化的过程中，如何掌控刺激信贷、投资和消费等一系列政策的退出时间至关重要，情况也较为复杂，为美国经济复苏带来较大的不确定性。可以说，美联储退出量化宽松，是美联储从过去十年宽松周期开始转向常态周期新开始。随着美元进入强势周期，甚至加息周期，许多以美元计价的新兴经济体海外债务风险将暴露，从而大大增加全球经济金融的溢出风险，加重部分新兴经济体国际债务的偿债负担，导致违约风险剧增。特别是在希腊债务危机再起，欧债风险挥之不去，新兴市场大幅波动、本币贬值、资本出现外流的大背景下，美国必须要顾及和承担起维护全球金融稳定和国际政策协调的重要责任。

In the domestic environment that affects the US foreign policy, including the relationship with China, America's economic status and the judgment of US society about its economic development are still the key elements, shaping the nation's domestic and foreign policies now and in the future.

In the past two years, the US economy showed an active recovery. In 2014, it grew by 2.4%, continuing the steady economic recovery in 2013. Growth was based on such elements as the constant improvements of the labor market, growing investment, “reindustrialization” and the return of manufacturing, the steady release of potential demand, repaired balance sheet of companies and financial institutions and increased capital return after the withdrawal of QE policy. The US economy shows a better performance against the background of continuing slowdown in other major economies (like the `EU) in the world or slow growth (like the new emerging countries). However, in the long term, many deep-rooted issues that have restrained the US economy and society have not been completely solved. The era features “low growth, low employment and high debt”.

The US economy still grows below its potential growth rate. Before 2008, the US actual GDP growth was 3%, the inflation rate was 2%-3% and the nominal GDP growth was 5%-6%. Since 2008, the nominal GDP growth was 15% lower than the trend line and also lower than the potential growth rate. Recently the World Bank cut the US GDP growth rate of 2015 by 0.5 point to 2.7%. So, strong growth is still not in reach.

The US still suffers a severe “dual economic phenomenon”. High value added finance and R&D stand in contrast to relatively low productivity and low value-added service, forming the two poles in the formation of the US economic structure. The US still has a long way to go in the manufacturing recovery and regression. In the labor structure, the US sees two extremes: One is that more of the labor force is of a high level of education and skills; the other is a labor force with a low level of education and low skills while the mid-level skilled workers are in serious shortage. With the reduction of the active labor force, labor participation rate has dropped to 62.6%, the lowest since October 1977. The employment gap caused by idle workers is still big. According to the US Federal Reserve Bank forecast, the US employment gap is 1.2% lower than the average level.

Huge federal government debt is a big burden. The fiscal cliff that has plagued the US has been much mitigated. In the fiscal year of 2014, the US federal deficit's proportion of GDP fell to 2.8%. The fiscal budget released by the new fiscal public budget of 2015 was $474 billion, accounting for 2.5% of GDP, much lower than the 9.8% of 2009 fiscal year. The fast increasing momentum of the US federal government debt has been curbed, but the source of debt service and the ability to create wealth still widely deviate from each other. The economic bottoming out and fiscal consolidation has contained the growth of the US federal government debt, which was faster than the economic fundamentals and the fiscal revenue.

After 6 years of recovery, the deleveraging by the private sector has put the US economy into a new round of growth. Increasing family wealth and the continuingly improved employment market have supported household consumption. Stimulated by such elements as the lower financing cost, increasing capacity utilization and business confidence, private investment is gradually stimulated. Helped by the economic recovery, the federal government debt ratio in the 2014 fiscal year clearly narrowed, to 2.8% from 4.1% over the previous fiscal year. However, the debt ratio of governments at all levels is still 319.3%, among the highest ratios in the world. The situation that the available source of debt service deviates from the ability to create wealth has not improved. The total US federal debt reached $18 trillion in 2014, exceeding GDP for the first time in history.

The US poverty gap has nearly reached its biggest spread in a hundred years. According to the US survey of Consumer Finance, since the financial crisis in 2008, the American lower-income households take account of 1% of the American total wealth in 2013 while the 5% richest Americans enjoy 63% of the American total wealth with their income proportion the highest in history. The income of the middle-class group has shown a declining momentum. The poverty gap in the US further enlarges and the wealth inequality has reached the highest level in over a hundred years.

Also, a close look should be taken at the effect of the US monetary policy adjustment on the global and the US economy. While the US Federal Reserve is cutting its bond-buying programs and finally normalizing interest rates, how to control the withdrawal time of a series of policies of stimulating credit, investment and consumption is vital and complicated, bringing a big uncertainty to the US economic recovery. The US QE withdrawal can be said to be the US Federal Reserve's new start, turning from a 10-year QE period to a period of normality. With the US dollar growing stronger, increasing interest rates will put the dollar-denominated overseas debts of the newly emerging economies at risk, greatly increase the risk of global economic and financial spillover risk and increase the burden of some newly emerging economies in international debt service, intensifying the default risk. Especially when the Greek debt crisis rises again, the risk of European debt lingers, the newly emerging markets fluctuate sharply, national currencies devalue and capital flows out, the US should take the important responsibility of maintaining the global financial stability and international policy coordination.